Democrat complacency

Democrats are railing over the Supreme Courts’ judicial coup as if it was unforeseeable and unpreventable, but there’s a strong case to be made that they need to look to themselves rather than their opposition when placing blame.

The seemingly sudden sea change has been building for over 20 years.

By the time Donald Trump was elected President, Democrats had controlled the Senate for only 3 of the previous 14 sessions of Congress, and controlled both houses only twice. Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had working Congressional majorities for only their first two of eight years in office.

In this century, the Democratic Party has consistently been unable to translate its Presidential victories into sustained Congressional majorities, in no small part to depressed voter turnout for mid-term elections.

But the outcome should have been readily foreseeable. Republicans cannily secured control of governorships and statehouses in anticipation of redistricting following both the 2010 and 2020 censuses. The resulting gerrymandering resulted in the creation of an increasingly number of virtually uncontestable districts for the G.O.P.

The effect has been an enablement of the G.O.P. to effectively stall a progressive political agenda for more than two decades, while managing to stick the Democrats with blame for the consequences of inaction.

Those Democrats counting on a repeat of the 2020 turnout in 2022 should remember that Joe Biden’s victory was as much a consequence of revulsion for Trump as of Biden’s positions. In fact, the data suggests that as much of one-quarter of Biden’s support came from Republicans disgruntled with Trump, but who still voted for G.O.P. candidates down-ticket…. which in part explains the lack of a Biden coattail.

If Democrats are to prevail this fall, it will require that the battle be fought seat-by-seat, state-by-state.

And it will not only require that the Party’s factions put aside their squabbling until after a victory… but that Democrats adopt a tone-of-voice that is far less focused on demonizing G.O.P. voters than on inviting women of any stripe for whom abortion bans and school shootings may lead to a break in ranks within the privacy of the voting booth.

July 20, 2022 2

Not Latinx!

Only non-Latinos talk about Latinos as a monolithic group. America’s Latinos are a diverse collection of populations of different ethnic, racial, geographical, religious, and cultural backgrounds. A growing number do not conveniently align with either party, and overwhelming majorities, when asked, reject the label “Latinx.”

In 2020, Trump gained 8 to 10 points with Hispanic/Latino voters vs. his performance in 2016, and this year a growing number are prepared to lay blame for the economy at the Democrats’ feet. In addition, immigration and health care rate higher in importance among Latino voters than for the general population.

Registered voter Latinos are nearly twice as likely to identify as Democrats, and half as likely to identify as Independents than those not yet registered.

But the role of religion in Latino politics is not to be ignored. Only about half of American Latinos are Catholic, and increasing numbers identify as evangelical… many aligned with Pentecostal and charismatic sects.

At Houses of Light, a Latino-majority evangelical church in Northridge, California, a 2020 online voter guide distributed among the congregants in advance of the 2020 presidential election, gave Donald Trump a four-star rating of “Very good,” while Joe Biden was given no stars and a rating of “Terrible. Don’t vote.” (Which is, by the way a flagrant violation of the religious tax exemption.)

July 16, 2022 0

It’s not too early…

…to begin thinking about the November elections.

Primaries have already determined the face-offs in a significant number of contests, and only 177 days remain until Election Day.

Whether or not there’s Senate election in your state, you have a greater stake than ever in assuring that like-minded candidates in other states have the resources most needed to persevere in hotly contested races.

Although share of party identification is up for Republicans and down for Democrats, about 1 in 10 voters consistently declines to identify with either party, which is a potential wild card.

If control of the Senate hinges on 6 races, redistricting has reduced the number of swing seats (won by either Presidential candidate in 2020 by less than 5%) among the House’s 435 members to no more than 30 districts. It is within the realm of possibility that the G.O.P. could take both the House and the Senate.

Voter turnout for mid-terms is traditionally far lower than for Presidential elections, and the fall-off is typically greater for Democrats than Republicans. Biden’s low popularity ratings afford no White house relief.

In addition, a significant portion of Biden’s 2020 voters split their tickets, and are predisposed to continue voting G.O.P. for Congress.

Democrats’ fortunes are tied to the lightning rod issues of Abortion Rights and Gun Bans, but polls say that the economy and rising healthcare costs are voters’ dominant issues.

The pollsters face yet another election in which past performance may be no indicator of future outcomes.

In the comings weeks, C O B A L T will highlight the backgrounds/positions of selected candidates in key races, and provide candidate scorecards by issue-dedicated advocates...

Along with campaign donation site links to fund efforts for must-hold and must-flip seats

July 14, 2022 0

Welcome activists!

Here café debate ends and activism begins. C O B A L T provides tools and information designed for politically progressive Americans living abroad who seek to make an impact beyond their own vote.

C O B A L T

Connects voters’ issues to like-minded candidates
Delivers fact-based perspectives on the public agenda, supported by credible sources
Aggregates and supplements issue-focused content designed for Sharing on social media
Communicates upcoming voter registration deadlines
Promotes online voter registration
Showcases online campaign/donation sites of like-minded candidates