Duel in the sun

First thing about Charlie Crist:  A Republican governor of Florida from 2007-2011, he broke with the GOP first by declaring himself an Independent in 2010 and then a Democrat in 2012.  In 2016 he won election to represent Florida’s 13th District in the U.S. House, and has since been twice re-elected.

Crist also served as Florida’s attorney general from 2003 to 2007 and its state education commissioner from 2001 to 2003.

Yesterday, he announced the choice of Karla Hernandez – president of the Miami-Dade County teachers union – as his running mate. Hernandez’s selection drives home Crist’s focus on education in a state where DeSantis has polarized voters with his hands-off approach to the coronavirus pandemic and his policies limiting classroom discussions of race and LGBTQ issues.

The ticket has been endorsed by the Florida Teachers’ Union and the AFL-CIO.

Crist – who has called out DeSantis as a “bully” who exploits cultural divides on gender, sexuality and race – is also campaigning to make it easier to vote in the state, including reversal of 2021 changes to the state’s mail ballot policies.

In Congress, he’s voted for:

  • American Rescue Plan Act of 2021
  • For the People Act of 2021
  • American Dream and Promise Act of 2021
  • Equality Act
  • Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
  • Build Back Better Act
  • Women’s Health Protection Act of 2021
  • COVID-19 Hate Crimes Act
  • Impeachment of Donald Trump

Learn more about Charlie Crist here:

Voting rights at risk

Voter discrimination and other manipulations of the electoral process are nearly as old as the republic itself, but such abuses were dealt a decisive blow by the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which barred jurisdictions with evidence of voting discrimination from changing their voting procedures without “pre-clearance” from Federal authorities.

And – not unlike Roe vs. Wade – the 1965 act was the law of the land for 50 years until 2013, when the Shelby County v Holder ruling released counties with histories of voter discrimination from Federal oversight.

Since then, states have been ramping up discriminatory voting practices.  Many of these, taken individually, may appear to have limited impact, but applied in combination they have a game-changing effect on electoral outcomes.

A Brennan Center analysis of data released by the Federal Election Assistance Commission found that nearly 11 million voters were purged from rolls between 2016 and 2018, overwhelmingly led by counties with a history of voter discrimination.

The telltale signs of discriminatory efforts to disenfranchise are many:

Registration

The simple failure to process voter voter registrations received prior to deadlines renders them void.  Many states also impose severe restrictions on – and its officers even harass – voter registration groups.  Other states mandate prejudicial qualification requirements for Deputy Registrars.

Voting

Attempts to restrict voting are far more insidious, and fall into two categories:

The first is the creation of logistical obstructions such as reducing and/or eliminating early voting dates. The most blatant, though, is gerrymandered consolidation/positioning of polling places to relocate them away from public transportation stops, and to reduce or eliminate them on Native American lands and college campuses.

Other election boards will – in selected precincts – reduce both the numbers of polling place staff and the amount of training that staff receives.  In those same selected precincts, they may also fail to assure adequate numbers of functioning voting machines, optical scanners, or electronic polling books, or alternatively to stock an insufficient number of paper ballots.

Another obstructive tactic is language discrimination both in the selection of polling place staff and wording of election documents.  Other blatant discrimination against minorities can include failure to accommodate voters with disabilities including barring assistance by family members.

Shortened deadlines for absentee ballot returns combine with complicated absentee ballot requirements to further deny access for those with mobility issues or irreconcilable schedule conflicts.

The second is the creation of administrative obstructions, among which the most prominent is excessive purging of voter registration rolls.

However, even a duly registered voter can be denied the right to vote by stricter photo ID laws, combined with gerrymandered closings of the DMV offices which issue them. This ID challenge tactic may imnclude failure to accept student ID’s issued by state universities, and/or Native American tribal IDs.  It also may include barring Native American voters living on reservations through “no P.O. Box” residential address requirements.

“Exact match” signature requirements are another ID challenge tactic to deny voters access to polls.

Practices less widely employed are:

  • Requiring the payment of outstanding civil fines/fees as a voting pre-requisite.
  • Failure to assist or accommodate voters displaced by natural disasters, and failure to inform formerly incarcerated persons of their voting rights.

The U.S. is unique among Western democracies placing the burden of voter registration upon the individual.

In Canada, a voter is automatically added to Federal election rolls at age 18, and remains registered even after a move. It is unsurprising that 93% of Canadians are registered to vote vs. only 68% of Americans.

These increasingly frequent abuses leave little question that after decades of progress toward universal enfranchisement, many states are rolling back voting rights in an echo of Jim Crow.

The ‘drone view”

Senate candidates are the perennial stars of midterm elections, but perhaps never more so than in 2022 as control of the Senate hangs by a thread. 

With only one-third of senators up for re-election in each cycle, Senate races are easier for voters to monitor and candidates’ names are more widely known than for the House.

And of the 36 Senate races, polls still rank 11 as too close to call.

And while the House may have less star power, it has ably and amply demonstrated its value as a check on the influence of reactionaries on national policy.

The sweeping Democratic victory in the 2018 mid-terms has now dangerously eroded, and years of gerrymandering have acted to reduce the number of seats that can be viably contested. 

Of 435 House races, polls rank only 33 as toss-ups

Only 20 more are rated as “leaning”…but not completely secure

In other words, pollsters are saying that outcomes for 88% of House races are foregone conclusions… thanks in no small part to decades of gerrymandering.

But it’s not just about Federal offices

While most voters focus only on gubernatorial elections in their home states, recent years have reminded us that activist governors can have an outsized impact – for better or for worse – on policy that most impacts day-to-day life. And it should not be forgotten that 19 Presidents were previously governors, including Franklin Roosevelt, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Ronald Reagan.

This fall, governors will be elected in 36 states.

Polls rank 11 of the 36 gubernatorial races with margins of 5% or less.

U.S. voters living abroad are reminded that online registration for local elections are unavailable in:

  • AK
  • ME
  • MI
  • MT
  • NH
  • ND
  • OK
  • SD
  • TX

Browse more COBALT blog posts on the 2022 elections – including highlights for individual races – here.

Those living in Mexico who are eligible to vote in U.S. elections (born in the U.S. or born to a U.S. citizen) have the opportunity to influence the outcomes in Federal elections in two ways:

  • Register online here and have your ballot mailed to you. The election is only 10 weeks away.
  • Contribute to like-minded candidates not only in your home state, but to those in hotly contested elections nationwide.  More here.

At risk from redistricting

With the exception of metropolitan Detroit, Michigan is a challenging landscape for any Democratic candidate.

Republicans have maintained control of the state’s Senate for the past 8 elections, and of its House for 6 of the past 8 elections.

Current Governor Gretchen Whitmer is a Democrat, but Michigan’s governorship has alternated between the two parties for the past 6 elections.

The 2020 Congressional redistricting significantly redrew boundaries for the adjacent 7th and 8th Districts, now pitting one House incumbent, Republican Tim Walberg, against another, Democrat Elissa Slotkin.  Walberg has served in the House since 2011, and Slotkin since 2019.

Slotkin, who holds a bachelor’s degree from Cornell University a master’s from Columbia, began her career serving in Iraq with the CIA. She later served on President George W. Bush’s national security staff and in the Department of Defense during the Barack Obama administration.

Her experience makes her an exceptional choice for her current House committee assignments:  Homeland Security, Armed Services, and Veterans’ Affairs.

Highlights of her voting record (Yeas) in the current Congress:

  • American Rescue Plan
  • For the People Act
  • American Dream and Promise Act
  • Equality Act
  • Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
  • Build Back Better Act
  • Women’s Health Protection Act
  • COVID-19 Hate Crimes Act
  • Impeachment of Donald Trump

Learn more about Elissa Slotkin here:

Affordable healthcare at risk

The Affordable Care Act (2010), created access to affordable health coverage for nearly 25 million Americans.

In 2014 – the first year of operation –  enrollment was over 8 million, in the following year over 11 million, and in the final year of the Obama administration to over 12 million.

The CMS reports that the ACA marketplace remains an important source of coverage and financial assistance for millions of low-income and middle-class Americans.

  •  52% benefit from reduced deductibles and other cost-sharing
  • Over 90% live in household with income at or below poverty level

According to Pew Research, only inflation ranks as a higher concern than rising healthcare costs.

And yet, from Day 1 of his administration, Donald Trump repeatedly tried to repeal the Act, and when that failed launched a sustained attack on the program:

  • Within days of taking office – and while enrollment for 2017 was still open –  slashed the enrollment assistance budget by 90% and cancelled television ads for the marketplace outreach campaign.
  • Halved the duration of the enrollment period, reducing open enrollment from 90 days to 45 days.
  • Eliminated the individual mandate penalty and loosened regulation of ‘short-term junk plans’…effectively diverting applicants away from ACA.
  • Stopped reimbursing insurance companies for their costs of compliance with the ACA’s financial assistance to low-income enrollees. Insurance companies responded by increasing premiums for silver plans to cover the cost of the cost-sharing subsidies.

The Center for American Progress estimates that if not for these added obstacles, at least 1.26 million more people would be enrolled in marketplace coverage today.

America’s ‘essential workers’ cannot endure without basic healthcare coverage. Protect their rights in November.

Blue in Ohio

Congressman Tim Ryan is running for the Ohio U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring, two-term Republican Senator Rob Portman.

Ryan represented northern Ohio’s 17th Congressional District from 2002 – 2013, and has represented its 13th District since 2013.

He has won his House elections by generous margins, and in the 2022 primaries garnered more votes than his Republican opponent.

Ohio is, nonetheless, a challenging political landscape for statewide Democratic candidates. Donald Trump carried the state.

Although a Catholic, Ryan nevertheless announced in 2015 that he no longer supported abortion bans:

“…while there are people of good conscience on both sides of this argument, one thing has become abundantly clear to me:

the heavy hand of government must not make this decision for women and families.”

A May, 2022 USA/Suffolk poll showed Ryan trailing his opponent by 3 points, but the Roe vs. Wade decision had a dramatic impact: Ryan now leads in some polls by as much as 21 points, including gains among.

  • Women 18 to 44:  From +10% to +19%
  • Independents: From +6 to 8

While Ryan’s focus is on economic issues including fair wages, infrastructure, and healthcare costs, he has supported a broader agenda in Congress, including votes for:

  • American Rescue Plan
  • For the People Act
  • American Dream and Promise Act
  • (LBGTQ+) Equality Act
  • Women’s Health Protection Act
  • COVID-19 Hate Crimes Act
  • Impeachment of Donald Trump

Learn more about Tim Ryan:

High flying Sen. Mark Kelly

Mark Kelly is a former U.S. Navy aviator who flew 39 combat missions during the Gulf War.

He is also a former astronaut who flew four missions on Space Shuttle Endeavour to the International Space Station.

In 2020, he defeated incumbent Martha McSally (R), appointed to fill the seat formerly held by John McCain, by a margin of 2.4%. He is running for his first full term in 2020.

Kelly is also the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who survived an assassination attempt in in 2011, but resigned the next year due to brain injury resulting from the shooting. (She has since recovered much of her ability to walk, speak, read, and write.)

In 2013, Kelly and Giffords co-founded the advocacy group Americans for Responsible Solutions (since rebranded simply ‘Giffords’) that is “fighting for stronger gun laws, holding the gun lobby accountable, and supporting candidates who stand for safer schools & communities.”

He has voted for legislation including:

  • American Rescue Plan Act of 2021
  • COVID-19 Hate Crimes Act
  • Protecting Medicare and American Farmers from Sequester Cuts Act
  • Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
  • Impeachment of Donald Trump

Learn more about Mark Kelly here:

Stay tuned for the third and final installment of COBALT’s blog series on Arizona, focusing on the gubernatorial race.

Read the first in the series, “Arizona: A Red Blue Checkerboard’ here.

Arizona: A Red-Blue checkerboard

Arizona is one of the swing states that has an outsized influence in Federal elections, and its history is a checkerboard of red and blue.  With all 9 House seats, a Senate seat, and a governorship up for grabs in 2022, there’s so much to take in that this is the first in a series of posts on the state’s political landscape.

Democrats have won only 1 in the last 5 gubernatorial elections, but Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is not running in 2022.

Democrats have won only 2 of the last five Senatorial elections, and Sen. Mark Kelly (D), who won the seat in a 2020 special election, is seeking re-election to his first full term.  His opponent will be decided by the Republican primary on August 2.

Arizona has voted Republican in presidential elections except for Bill Clinton in 1996 and Joe Biden in 2020 (by only 0.3%).  It was one of the states for which the Trump campaign attempted to submit fake electors in the 2020 election.

Arizona’s U.S. Representatives are divided 5(D):4 (R). 

The Districts held by Republicans are located in predominantly white suburbs of metropolitan Phoenix.

Democrats have not commanded a majority in Arizona’s state legislature for over 30 years.

It ain’t over ’til…

If you fear that America is closer to the precipice than ever before, and that Democrats are not on course to deliver the votes needed in November to roll back the wave of repression, your fear is not unfounded.

Any Democratic over-confidence that the trifecta of gun policy, abortion rights, and January 6 hearings will produce a ‘blue wave’… flies in the face of polls that say Americans’ frustration with inflation and health care costs top their list of priorities. Abortion Rights, Racial Inequality, Economic Inequality, and Climate Change are far down on Americans’ list of pressing issues.

Margins in many races will be razor-thin, and victory will depend not only upon turning out the Party faithful in November, but upon swaying swing voters.

RCP’s tracking of the Generic Congressional Vote shows that Republican advantage has never been lower than + 2.0% for many months.

But focusing on the point spread ignores a truth that may be even more important:

Throughout the political chaos of 2022, the percentage of voters who express no preference for either party has steadfastly hovered at 14%… one in seven!

So as partisan fanatics demonize not just the opposing party, but its voters… it’s worth remembering that the trash talk which earns lots of Likes and Shares among Democratic loyalists is hardly an invitation to anyone not yet committed to voting Blue. There is still an important role for civil, fact-based political dialogue.

And that, in a nutshell, is what C O B A L T is all about.

Blue in a red state

When most people – other than Iowans – think about its state leadership, they may recall Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst, or Governor Kim Reynolds.  They – as well as three of the state’s four House Representatives –  are all Republicans.

Then there’s Iowa 3rd District Rep. Cindy Axne…

the lone Democrat who won office in 2018 by unseating a Republican incumbent.

A native Iowan and U Iowa graduate, she moved to Chicago, where she worked for the Tribune Co. and also earned an MBA from Northwestern. She and her husband later became small business partners before returning to Iowa with their children.

Her activism began in 2007 when , upon learning that availability of full-day kindergarten in her district was so limited that eligibility was determined by lottery, she took on the the school board to make it available to all.

For most of the next 10 years she worked with Iowa state agencies, charged with helping them to streamline their delivery of government services.  She’s remained an advocate of government efficiency and transparency, voting for the Congressional Budget Transparency Act.

Active in her Catholic church, she voted for the Women’s Health Protection Act of 2022 to establish the statutory right to abortion free from state bans and restrictions on patients or healthcare providers.

She voted for both the American Rescue Plan and the Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act.

And she introduced the Striking Workers Healthcare Protection Act requiring employers to continue providing health insurance to workers on strike.

Her ability to successfully advocate for progressive policy in such a politically conservative environment exhibits noteworthy skills and tactics.  And it will be far easier for Democrats to reverse the tide in Iowa while there’s still a beachhead, rather than to start with re-taking this seat. 

Learn more on her official Congressional web site, her re-election web site, and her Ballotpedia profile.

And watch C O B A L T for more selected candidate profiles between now and Election Day. They may not be in your state, but campaign donations allow you to participate anywhere. (More here.)

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