Tag: Progressives Abroad Mexico

Dozing Giant: Mexico’s U.S. citizens

Former U.S. House Speaker Tip O’Neill famously said “All politics are local.”

In Mexico, many socially conscious U.S.-born residents translate political conviction into social activism by volunteering at – or donating to – non-profits that advocate for positive change, including many focused on meeting critical needs of marginalized communities. (These organizations are often featured on COBALT’s Facebook/Instagram pages.)

But there is no substitute for a ballot.

And far too many Mexican residents who are eligible to vote sit out U.S. elections because “they have nothing to do with my life in Mexico”.

But that’s a viewpoint which turns a blind eye to the significant local impact that American politics have on daily life south on the Mexican side of the border.

U.S. government policy has significant implications for daily life south of the border on issues ranging from banning assault weapons to human rights to environmental sustainability to income inequality. (An estimated 5,000,000 firearms have been trafficked to Mexico since the expiration of the Assault Weapons Ban. Over 200,000 Mexico residents receive U.S. Social Security benefits).

It also has implications for U.S. policy on trade Mexico trade, energy, and immigration.

But can votes cast FROM Mexico…

…really make a difference FOR Mexico?

There are no fewer than 800,000 – and likely well above 1,000,000 – Mexico residents eligible to vote in U.S elections.

The Federal Voter Assistance Program estimates that only 10% of eligible U.S. voters living abroad vote

Democracy’s greatest enemy is apathy.

In 2022, Democrats lost 9 House races by less than 10,000 votes… 5 by less than 3,000 votes… and one (CA17) by only 564 votes.

If you were born in the U.S….

…were born to a U.S. citizen…

or were naturalized in the U.S….

it is your right to vote from Mexico:

1. Register online (start here)…

2. Receive your ballot via email…

3. Print, complete, and return mail your ballot.

Do it not just for the future of the U.S.… but also for Mexico’s future.

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Ferociously red Texas

Some may remember predictions back in 2012 about the demographic inevitability of a Blue Texas, and population trends since seem to lend further credence to the claim:

  • Seven in 10 Texans now live in the state’s 6 largest urban areas
  • Minorities account for 46% of the population (including 9% Black and 28% Hispanic).

So how is it that Texas Democrats continue to struggle in statewide contests when the political landscape should – on its face – promote Democratic competitiveness?

The answer lies in rural Texas.

In 2018, Beto O’Rourke lost his Senate race against Ted Cruz by 215,000 votes statewide… but by over 441,000 votes in counties with populations of less than 50,000.  These counties, incidentally, voted against Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in virtually the same proportions.

Democrats simply cannot win in Texas without meaningfully improving their position in these counties.

This time around in his challenge of Texas’s incumbent Governor Greg Abbott, O’Rourke has become even more visible in rural Texas, but it’s still an uphill battle.

While more than half of rural voters approve of Abbott’s job performance, O’Rourke’s unfavorability rating among them is 60%… more than 9 in 10 of whom characterized their opinion as “strongly unfavorable.”  The flip side is that Beto needs to improve his position among them by only 5%-10% (30%-35%) to affect the outcome.

Much of the animus among rural voters can be attributed to O’Rourke’s passionate public outburst after visiting the site of a 2019 mass shooting in El Paso:

“Hell, yes… we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47.”

O’Rourke doesn’t talk as much about gun control these days.  He is instead chipping away at Abbotts’s rural base by attacking the governor for “leaving rural Texas behind” on three issues:

  • Broadband internet access.  O’Rourke is highlighting Abbott’s veto of a bill to bolster a state fund which subsidizes broadband internet in rural Texas.
  • Quality of public education.  O’Rourke is attacking Abbott’s embrace of school vouchers as an attempt to “defund” public education by letting parents use taxpayer dollars to send their kids elsewhere. (Texas voters favor the measure 2-to-1.)
  • Closure of rural hospitals.  O’Rourke blames Abbott’s refusal to expand Medicaid in Texas.

But any discussion of rural voters in Texas is incomplete without consideration of its Tejano vote.

While Democrats still enjoy an advantage among Tejanos, their margins have declined in both of the last two Presidential elections.  One contributing factor is that protestant evangelical denominations have been attracting many converts among historically Catholic working-class Tejanos.  Another is that Democrats’ national Latino outreach can fail to leverage the distinct nuances of the Texas Latino culture. Sometimes – as in Hillary’s backhanded appeal in her selection of running mate Tim Kaine based in part on his fluency in Spanish.

RealClearPolitics reports that in five surveys conducted between June 29 and August 29, Abbott’s advantage is projected at no less than 5%, and as much as 10%.

But whether or not O’Rourke’s aggressive campaigning in rural Texas counties pays rich enough dividends this November to sway the outcome, he will emerge with an even more robust statewide organization that may finally pay off when Texas next elects a Senator.

Learn more about Beto O’Rourke:

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U.S. citizens in Mexico: Diversos!

The 1 million+ U.S. citizens in Mexico are an incredibly varied population…. the largest community of Americans living outside of the U.S…. and have the potential to change the outcomes of increasing tight election races.

Much is written about the contingent of American retirees, non-Mexican in ancestry, who were born – and lived most of their lives – in the U.S.  These citizens are largely – but not exclusively – concentrated in enclaves along Mexico’s Pacific and Gulf coasts.

But not all of Mexico’s gringos are senior citizens… in fact, far from it.

  • 2nd generation. There are the U.S. citizens born of parents who were at the time residing in Mexico.  Some of these parents remained permanently, founding and operating businesses in which their children have now succeeded them.
  • Tours-of-duty. Some are working-age professionals on tours of duty with U.S. companies operating in Mexico, many with school-age children.  Others are digital nomads just passing through for a few weeks or months.

These are, however, just the tip of an iceberg largely made up of U.S. citizens of Mexican ancestry.

  • Border commuters. Tens of thousands of dual citizens live in cities and towns along the U.S. border commute to the U.S. daily, some as workers and others as owners of businesses ranging from currency exchange to auto insurance and nationalization that operate on both sides of the border.
  • Dependent families. Some U.S. citizens of Mexican birth return to Mexico to care for aged or infirm relatives, sometimes also to take up the reins of a family business.
  • Foreigner services. Others leverage their knowledge of English language and American culture to work in expat enclaves at businesses ranging from home construction/remodeling and retail to personal services.

U.S. citizens are not required by law to surrender their American citizenship in order to become citizens of another country, but the laws on Mexican citizenship have a far more restrictive history.

Until 1934, a Mexican woman who married a foreigner automatically forfeited her Mexican citizenship.  Not until 1950 was the law amended to allow her to retain it… but only if she and her spouse resided in Mexico. (This also allowed her to own property.)

Not until 1969 was Mexican citizenship automatically granted to children born of a Mexican mother, regardless of where the birth occurred.  And while a 1997 law limited citizenship for these children to the first foreign-born generation, a 2021 law removed this restriction

C O B A L T ‘S mission is to deliver – to all of these American citizens – its issue-focused, fact-based commentary on a progressive public agenda, and to promote U.S. voter registration among politically progressive American citizens living in Mexico.

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Senate race snapshot

With nine weeks remaining until the general election, polling on U.S. Senate races is becoming more frequent and the emerging picture is a mixed bag of certain outcomes and down-to-the-wire races (complete data last below).

FLORIDA:  Democratic Congresswoman Val Demings is poised to defeat incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio.  Demings was on Joe Biden’s short list of prospective VP candidates in 2020.

GEORGIA:  Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock is in a tight race with Herschel Walker.  Warnock won the seat by defeating incumbent Kelly Loeffler in a 2020 special election.  Walker, a pro football Hall-of Famer and 1992 Olympics participant, is a graduate of the University of Georgia.

NEVADA: Polls are conflicted about re-election prospects for Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto.  Cortez Masto, who holds the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Harry Reid, was twice elected as the state’s attorney general.  She is the first woman from Nevada – and the first Latina in the U.S. – to be elected to the U.S. Senate.

NORTH CAROLINA:  Democratic State Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley is in a tight race with Ted Budd for the seat vacated by Republican Sen. Richard Burr.

OHIO:  Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan is struggling in a race against J.D. Vance for the seat vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman.

WISCONSIN:  Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is poised to flip the seat held by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson.

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Affordable healthcare at risk

The Affordable Care Act (2010), created access to affordable health coverage for nearly 25 million Americans.

In 2014 – the first year of operation –  enrollment was over 8 million, in the following year over 11 million, and in the final year of the Obama administration to over 12 million.

The CMS reports that the ACA marketplace remains an important source of coverage and financial assistance for millions of low-income and middle-class Americans.

  •  52% benefit from reduced deductibles and other cost-sharing
  • Over 90% live in household with income at or below poverty level

According to Pew Research, only inflation ranks as a higher concern than rising healthcare costs.

And yet, from Day 1 of his administration, Donald Trump repeatedly tried to repeal the Act, and when that failed launched a sustained attack on the program:

  • Within days of taking office – and while enrollment for 2017 was still open –  slashed the enrollment assistance budget by 90% and cancelled television ads for the marketplace outreach campaign.
  • Halved the duration of the enrollment period, reducing open enrollment from 90 days to 45 days.
  • Eliminated the individual mandate penalty and loosened regulation of ‘short-term junk plans’…effectively diverting applicants away from ACA.
  • Stopped reimbursing insurance companies for their costs of compliance with the ACA’s financial assistance to low-income enrollees. Insurance companies responded by increasing premiums for silver plans to cover the cost of the cost-sharing subsidies.

The Center for American Progress estimates that if not for these added obstacles, at least 1.26 million more people would be enrolled in marketplace coverage today.

America’s ‘essential workers’ cannot endure without basic healthcare coverage. Protect their rights in November.

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The widening income gap

The G.O.P’s ability to highjack a labor vote which once made up the Democratic Party’s core is unsurprising in light of the continuing rise of income inequality.

The Federal Minimum Wage has not been increased since  2009… the last time that the Democrats held a working Congressional majority.

And despite periodic increases, the purchasing power of the Federal Minimum Wage peaked in 1968!

While a number of states have enacted laws raising the minimum to as high as $13+/hour, the 2009 Federal Minimum wage of $7.25/hr. is the minimum in 20 states (GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MS, NH, NC, ND, OK, PA, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI, WY).

The effect is also unsurprising.

Since 1980, income gain for the top 1% is nearly 5 times the gain for the bottom 20%.

The richest 1% now own nearly half of the world’s wealth.

In the depths of the Great Depression, Franklin Roosevelt’s 1935 National Labor Relations Act explicitly granted employees the right to collectively bargain and join trade unions.

When the G.O.P. regained control of Congress in 1946, it passed the Taft-Hartley Act, the so-called right-to-work law, that effectively neutered unions.

Today, America is experiencing a rebirth of organized labor as workers at deep-pocketed multi-nationals including Amazon and Starbucks struggle to regain their American dream.

They deserve our support as voters and as consumers.

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Environmental U-Turn

With the 2016 election of Donald Trump, U.S. energy and environmental policy pivoted almost 180 degrees.

The administration’s policy was for the US to attain energy independence based on fossil fuel use.  To that end, it rescinded 98 environmental rules and regulations, and supported gas and oil drilling in national forests and near national monuments and parks.

While the current administration has reversed some of these changes, others are now anchored not in agency rules and regulations, but by act of Congress.

Here is only a partial list of the environmental atrocities:

2016

  • Installed a former coal lobbyist to head the Environmental Protection Agency.
  • Signed executive orders approving the Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines.

2018

  • Announced plans to allow oil and gas drilling in nearly all U.S. waters.

2019

  • Opened the entire coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling.

  • Rewrote pollution-control policies to reduce regulation of chemicals known to be serious health risks, to the benefit of the chemicals industry.

2020

  • Pulled the United States out of the Paris climate accord.
  • Lowered vehicle emissions standards (projected to increase annual U.S. emissions by 20%.)

The clear message from the Trump administration’s Congressional enablers is that quality of life takes a back seat to corporate profits.

And there is no assurance that a change in control of Congress in 2022 will not allow the assault on the environment to pick up where it left off in 2020.

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High flying Sen. Mark Kelly

Mark Kelly is a former U.S. Navy aviator who flew 39 combat missions during the Gulf War.

He is also a former astronaut who flew four missions on Space Shuttle Endeavour to the International Space Station.

In 2020, he defeated incumbent Martha McSally (R), appointed to fill the seat formerly held by John McCain, by a margin of 2.4%. He is running for his first full term in 2020.

Kelly is also the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who survived an assassination attempt in in 2011, but resigned the next year due to brain injury resulting from the shooting. (She has since recovered much of her ability to walk, speak, read, and write.)

In 2013, Kelly and Giffords co-founded the advocacy group Americans for Responsible Solutions (since rebranded simply ‘Giffords’) that is “fighting for stronger gun laws, holding the gun lobby accountable, and supporting candidates who stand for safer schools & communities.”

He has voted for legislation including:

  • American Rescue Plan Act of 2021
  • COVID-19 Hate Crimes Act
  • Protecting Medicare and American Farmers from Sequester Cuts Act
  • Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
  • Impeachment of Donald Trump

Learn more about Mark Kelly here:

Stay tuned for the third and final installment of COBALT’s blog series on Arizona, focusing on the gubernatorial race.

Read the first in the series, “Arizona: A Red Blue Checkerboard’ here.

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Forced birth & adoption

Abortion ban supporters are touting that adoption will deal with the consequences of ‘forced birth’, but the claim rings hollow in the harsh light of the facts.

While it is true that up to 30% of Evangelical Christians may have an adopted child in their families (U.S. average is 2%)…. 

…there remain over 400,000 children in foster care hoping for adoption, and the number is rising each year.  Their chances are nothing but discouraging.

Fewer than 1 in 5 children in foster care are ever adopted. 

A white child is 40% more likely to be adopted than a black child.

On average, a child in foster care waits 4 years for an adoption, so it is unsurprising that the average child spends only 17 months in foster care before turning 18, and unadopted children fare significantly worse than others as adults on almost every significant dimension.

In addition, more than 400,000 more children are taken into custody by Child Protective Services each year.

The paradox is that despite this staggering level of need, only 2 in 5 adoptions originate from foster care.  Some 2 in 5 are completed through private agencies, and 1 in 4 adopts from outside the U.S.

One in four adoptions are actually of children born outside the U.S.

It’s worth noting that some of the Private and International adoptions are driven by laws in 11 U.S. states which allow adoption agencies to refuse service to LBGTQ applicants.

As the human race approaches the absolute limit of the planet to support it, the legislation of forced births appears as nothing less than a self-delusional exercise in self-destruction.

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Arizona: A Red-Blue checkerboard

Arizona is one of the swing states that has an outsized influence in Federal elections, and its history is a checkerboard of red and blue.  With all 9 House seats, a Senate seat, and a governorship up for grabs in 2022, there’s so much to take in that this is the first in a series of posts on the state’s political landscape.

Democrats have won only 1 in the last 5 gubernatorial elections, but Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is not running in 2022.

Democrats have won only 2 of the last five Senatorial elections, and Sen. Mark Kelly (D), who won the seat in a 2020 special election, is seeking re-election to his first full term.  His opponent will be decided by the Republican primary on August 2.

Arizona has voted Republican in presidential elections except for Bill Clinton in 1996 and Joe Biden in 2020 (by only 0.3%).  It was one of the states for which the Trump campaign attempted to submit fake electors in the 2020 election.

Arizona’s U.S. Representatives are divided 5(D):4 (R). 

The Districts held by Republicans are located in predominantly white suburbs of metropolitan Phoenix.

Democrats have not commanded a majority in Arizona’s state legislature for over 30 years.

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