Categories: Elections

Ferociously red Texas

Some may remember predictions back in 2012 about the demographic inevitability of a Blue Texas, and population trends since seem to lend further credence to the claim:

Seven in 10 Texans now live in the state’s 6 largest urban areas
Minorities account for 46% of the population (including 9% Black and 28% Hispanic).

So how is it that Texas Democrats continue to struggle in statewide contests when the political landscape should – on its face – promote Democratic competitiveness?

The answer lies in rural Texas.

In 2018, Beto O’Rourke lost his Senate race against Ted Cruz by 215,000 votes statewide… but by over 441,000 votes in counties with populations of less than 50,000. These counties, incidentally, voted against Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in virtually the same proportions.

Democrats simply cannot win in Texas without meaningfully improving their position in these counties.

This time around in his challenge of Texas’s incumbent Governor Greg Abbott, O’Rourke has become even more visible in rural Texas, but it’s still an uphill battle.

While more than half of rural voters approve of Abbott’s job performance, O’Rourke’s unfavorability rating among them is 60%… more than 9 in 10 of whom characterized their opinion as “strongly unfavorable.” The flip side is that Beto needs to improve his position among them by only 5%-10% (30%-35%) to affect the outcome.

Much of the animus among rural voters can be attributed to O’Rourke’s passionate public outburst after visiting the site of a 2019 mass shooting in El Paso:

“Hell, yes… we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47.”

O’Rourke doesn’t talk as much about gun control these days. He is instead chipping away at Abbotts’s rural base by attacking the governor for “leaving rural Texas behind” on three issues:

Broadband internet access. O’Rourke is highlighting Abbott’s veto of a bill to bolster a state fund which subsidizes broadband internet in rural Texas.
Quality of public education. O’Rourke is attacking Abbott’s embrace of school vouchers as an attempt to “defund” public education by letting parents use taxpayer dollars to send their kids elsewhere. (Texas voters favor the measure 2-to-1.)
Closure of rural hospitals. O’Rourke blames Abbott’s refusal to expand Medicaid in Texas.

But any discussion of rural voters in Texas is incomplete without consideration of its Tejano vote.

While Democrats still enjoy an advantage among Tejanos, their margins have declined in both of the last two Presidential elections. One contributing factor is that protestant evangelical denominations have been attracting many converts among historically Catholic working-class Tejanos. Another is that Democrats’ national Latino outreach can fail to leverage the distinct nuances of the Texas Latino culture. Sometimes – as in Hillary’s backhanded appeal in her selection of running mate Tim Kaine based in part on his fluency in Spanish.

RealClearPolitics reports that in five surveys conducted between June 29 and August 29, Abbott’s advantage is projected at no less than 5%, and as much as 10%.

But whether or not O’Rourke’s aggressive campaigning in rural Texas counties pays rich enough dividends this November to sway the outcome, he will emerge with an even more robust statewide organization that may finally pay off when Texas next elects a Senator.

Learn more about Beto O’Rourke: