“Not even a majority of Republicans are MAGA Republicans,” Joe Biden said in his speech in Philadelphia on September 1.
It’s a bold claim, and one upon which may hang the Democratic Party’s prospects for turning a squeak-by election victory into a blue tidal wave.
Surveys of G.O.P.-Registered and G.O.P.-Leaning voters conducted over the past 45 days by NBC News, Quinnipiac, and CNN are in agreement that while Biden’s claim of ‘a majority of Republicans” may be overstated, there is a meaningful degree of truth in the claim that all Republicans are not MAGA Republicans:
More than half of Republicans prefer a 2024 candidate other than Trump… and 1 in 4 is expressly opposed to a Trump nomination.
But among the core of Registered Republicans who determine the outcome of Republican primaries, support for Trump is still above 70%. His supporters have been working tirelessly since 2016 to install themselves in positions of party influence at the state level, and the 2022 primary season has demonstrated Trump’s continuing ability to influence the outcome of statewide elections. Even today, Trump’s overall public approval rating continues to hover around 40%.
Some 69% of attendees at this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) expressed a preference for a Trump run in 2024, almost identical to the 70% share of Registered Republicans who support a Trump run.
It’s noteworthy that while Ron DeSantis was preferred over Trump by only 24% of CPAC attendees, preference for him in a scenario in which Trump does not run jumps to 65% – close enough to Trump’s 69% to strongly suggest that MAGA will survive – and continue to drive the G.O.P. – whether led by Trump or not.
A lot can happen to change the political landscape by 2024, but (absent a criminal conviction), the current numbers suggest a high likelihood that Trump will be re-nominated in 2024.
But the data also suggests that if Trump secures the nomination in 2024, ‘mainstream’ Republicans would – at minimum – cast no vote for President and – at extreme – vote Democratic. It remains an open question whether 8 years of disillusionment among ‘mainstream’ Republicans will translate into deeper and longer-lasting changes in party allegiances.
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